Weekly Question: Can the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty survive the calls for change in Egypt?
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January 31, 2011
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Nat Pine
7:09 pm
Jan 31, 2011
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Kafir Harby
7:09 pm
Jan 31, 2011
Peace treaty? We go from one hudna to another hudna. As long as there is islam, there will be war. If we want peace in this world, we need to eliminate islam, whatever that means, whatever it takes.
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a. levy
7:09 pm
Jan 31, 2011
If the Muslem Brotherhood comes into power, the question of continued peace with Israel is highly questionable. Iran will most likely move in if The Brotherhood takes over and they will welcome Iran.
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Ben
7:10 pm
Jan 31, 2011
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dr, steve pastner
7:11 pm
Jan 31, 2011
It’s premature to see how this will shake out and Obama , on balance, is correct in playing it ‘close to the vest’..
But a media offensive is needed now by both the U.S. and Israel to point out :
1- That both have made conciliatory gestures in the past: ( i.e. Israel , in the return of both Sinai and Gaza which were fairly won fruits of military victories in wars Israel did not start. The U.s. in repeated gestures of friendship to the muslim world from Carter ( to the ayatollah), thru clinton ( in his support of Bosnian Muslims, to Obama (in his cairo speech) .
And outstreched hands were spat upon, with rockets from Gaza to chanting anti-u.s. mobs and embassy hostages… etc.
2.That a unilateral abrogation , by whatever regime emerges in Egypt, of the longstanding Eyptian-Israeli peace ( however “cold” its been) will be unapologetically met with unified force by both the U.S. and its only reliable regional ally.
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Harvey Rosenwasser
7:11 pm
Jan 31, 2011
The outcome of the actions in Egypt will be goverened mostly by the military. No group, including the Muslim Brotherhood, can succeed without the backing of the military.
The military receives one billion dollars each year from the USA. That enticement has purchased the cold peace referred to in previous postings. It is unlikely that the Egyptian military would support any person or government that put that largess in jepardy.
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Richard Roberts
10:09 pm
Jan 31, 2011
So you think the Muslim brotherhood is not in the Egyptian military?
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Robin
7:21 pm
Jan 31, 2011
No way, zip, not ever till hell freezes over! All Islamist extremists, no exceptions, want to annihilate Israel. Get it off the map. Period. That IS their way of “making peace” with Israel.
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Abu Nudnik
7:24 pm
Jan 31, 2011
Very hard to tell. If the military takes over, which is possible, we may have an Attaturk moment. But I’m no Egypt expert. I do know one thing though: Egyptians are NOT Arabs: they’re Egyptians. They owe no descent from Ishmael but from the ancient Pharaohs and their people, origin unknown but presumed to have come from the north side of the Mediterranean many thousands of years ago.
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Tim N
7:33 pm
Jan 31, 2011
Lebanon, Syria – now vassals of Iran
Tunisia, Jordan, Yemen and now Egypt are throwing out the dictatorships establish by Britain 90 years ago – to be replaced by Islamic ideology and sharia law
Sudan is on the move, watch out for Saudi Arabia.
Israel is surrounded by 300 million Arabs – not all hostile YET
- A few more years, some more eruptions of Islamic revolution and cancellation of all peace treaties.
Then Israel will be surrounded by 300 million radical Islamists, all bent on the destruction of 6 million Jews. Does this remind you of anything from the last world war?
You may say on Yom Kippur “Never again, never forgive” but who will your Messiah be?
When will Israel listen to its prophets and their very precise foretelling of these events of “Jerusalem surrounded” (for example Zec 12 – 14)
“Why do the nations rage” and why do the leaders of Israel not turn back to God in humility (not arrogance)
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sy scheinberg
7:38 pm
Jan 31, 2011
The peace treaty can certainly survive the current upheaval, depending on who ends up in the drivers seat. Generally it is better to deal with the opponent (Mabarak) you know than the one you don.t.
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Jason-Montreal
7:47 pm
Jan 31, 2011
B”H
In hindsight, it may have been best to have listened to the Rebbe during the 6 day war. The Rebbe clearly said, “Take Cairo! HaShem gave you a brucha!” I bet they wish they’d of listened now…
Moshiach is close folks… Anything to do with Egypt means REDEMPTION.
Speedily,
Jason – Montreal
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LUIS FROM MEXICO
7:48 pm
Jan 31, 2011
Moubarak is no friend of Israel and he kept a “peace” treaty just to get money from the US, and the new regime, hopfully not a fundamentalist one will try to get even more money in exchange for “peace with Israel”……….anyway, Israel shoul’d be at maximum alert on its border with Egypt and avoid getting a surprise attack like the 1973 one.
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Miriam
8:08 pm
Jan 31, 2011
el Baradei is associated with Iran, so scratch him as a good substitute for Mubarak. Mubarak has to go. He was no bargain, but at least we knew whom we were dealing with. It’s a very tenuous situation for Israel, which must be prepared for anything! Obama is useless and spineless (as usual). Reminds me of Carter and look what he accomplished vis-a-vis the Iranian revolution. Only time will tell…
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steve mann
8:09 pm
Jan 31, 2011
Lets be frank-
Until the Arab lands have no more to offer the 1st world- ie-Oil.
Or until the Western civilisation no longer needs the use of it. The Muslim theocratic/political arena will always be appeased by the European/ American establishment.
That means that whilst the politicians of the West know that Israel is the only real friend in the Middle East- They still have to pander to the Islamic world- Even though they “Blow them up”.
So regardless – Israel has to watch her own back and if the brotherhood of Muslims take power then you will see a shift towards Hamas and to Iran-
So stay strong and show no weakness- ¬cause talking to those individuals will get no where.
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Stephen
8:17 pm
Jan 31, 2011
The likely outcome of any Middle East Arab/Muslim revolution is the placement of a religious government, usually bent on Israel’s destruction. The Muslim Brotherhood essentially began in Egypt and has offshoots with names such as Hamas, Hesbolla, and Al Qu’ada. Considering how the Egyptian population – poorly educated for the most part – has been raised on a diet of hate and distortion of Israel and Jews, the peace treaties would be rescinded as one of the administrations first acts. It is obvious to me that the Brotherhood is the only truly organised group capable to take over the reigns of power.
This would not be good for Jews or Israel, nor would it be good for any political opposition parties in Egypt, never mind the truly original Egyptian population – the Coptics.
The former UN investigator of Iran’s atomic weapons development – I can’t remember his name – now wants in in Egypt. This Egyptian spent the past decade blocking attempts by his own UN organisation to investigate Iran, and is well affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The international press loves him. He will likely be put as the new figurehead president if Mubarak falls.
Surely, after regime changes seen over the past half century, any revolution in Egypt will be no picnic for the population. Incitement against Israel has always been used as the distraction for the government’s shortcomings and focus for why there must be even greater repression of the people.
We should not forget that Egypt has not acknowledged that it has lost any war with Israel. In fact it has museums dedicated to its “victories” over Israel. The Egyptian population has been educated for the past forty years that it had defeated Israel. The people will demand of the new government a quick and final victory.
What exactly had Egypt given Israel for peace? A tenuous promise that had always been a worry that Egypt would revoke at any instant if it would be to Egypt’s advantage?
Because of the forced treaty and peace agreement, brokered by the US, Egypt receives US financial and military assistance. Presently, Egypt has the largest standing army of 165,000 troops in the Middle East, and the best armed army in the Middle East, this thanks to the US. In sheer numbers of warcraft, tanks, cannon, men, and munitions, it is far and beyond what Israel has – though the press enjoys erroneously claiming that Israel is the military strongman in the region.
I have recently read that there is even a M1A1 fabrication plant in Egypt, hence the vast number of tanks Egypt has. Something the Muslim Brotherhood would export to its regional friends.
Also, Egypt’s military officers are US trained. Its fighter jet pilots are US trained. When I say US trained, I mean trained in the US by the US military.
Then there is the Chinese and North Korean munitions that Egypt purchases.
Egypt ruled the Gaza Strip with an closed iron fist, it ruled domestically with an open iron hand. Sorry to say, this is the way of Muslim nations. Power and authority from above, and a subservient and powerless people ruled by fear. Like lemmings, the 79 million strong population will be directed against Israel. To believe otherwise would be naive.
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Simon Gulden
8:18 pm
Jan 31, 2011
Regardless of Mubarak’s fate, there is a glimmer of a chance that the ‘Cold-Peace’ treaty status quo between Israel and Egypt for the past thirty years might withstand today’s turmoil in Egypt, which was preceded by the Tunisian revolt, and that which might follow in other despotic regimes of the Arab and Muslim world, might turn into true peace, however unlikely the chances seem.This is an opportunity and chance for change in the Middle East if the current leaderless revolts can give birth to true and trusting charismatic Arab leaders who see opportunities to lead and develop their own countries by taking advantage of the benefits of socio-economic, political ties, respect and understanding with the west and modern society; for which the United States and Israel may be willing to reciprocate in return for a genuine warm fuzzy peace and relationships which hopefully can be nurtured in the cradle of civilization as we know it..
Hot debate. What do you think?
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Rob
8:26 pm
Jan 31, 2011
It is better for Israel if th Brothrhood takes over. Why?
Beacause there never was “peace” with Egypt. Only a non aggression pact. Which itself is meaningless as the power gap between Israel and Egypt has widened so much it would be insane to attack Israel. The Brotherhood would break the blockade in Gaza, not the “peace treaty”. This will be perfect for Israel to take back large part of sinai and control all Gazas borders.
Meanwhile, the secularists in Egypt would fight against the botherhood, (correct spelling).But the brotherhood are very wily people.. They will pretend at first to be “moderate”, promise to stamp mout corruption and thus lure many secularists to vote for them. That will be the last election Egypt will experience in our lifetime.
The people to watch are the copts who are 10% of Egypt and are christians.
Rob
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LUIS FROM MEXICO
8:58 pm
Jan 31, 2011
You say that by taking power the brotherhood Israel can have a safer border with Gaza? ……..How do you figure this out?……on the contrary, by opening the Gaza-Egypt border there will be more danger for Israel because the weak control Egypt had on that border will be gone and more armament will go into Gaza.
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Andrew Freedman
8:53 pm
Jan 31, 2011
Absolutely not. Though treaties are made between nations, not governments, no new leader of Egypt has any motivation to maintain close ties with Israel. The treaty as a piece of paper will stand, but it will be constantly violated and ignored.
A leader of an arab nation facing massive unemployment, poor industrial development, a strong Islamic fundamentalist movement needs to satisfy the emotional needs of the factions and the people. Hatred of Jews is a time honored method of rallying the masses against an identifiable enemy to turn their attention away from the real enemy, their own corrupt leaders.
One would think that any logical leader in this situation, would want to base his economic development on ties to Israel. Since Egypt is not intrinsically rich with oil, Israel agriculture and technology are ideal.
But then again, since when would any Arab nation seek to be led by logical leaders?
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Eric
8:59 pm
Jan 31, 2011
If the Muslim Brotherhood takes over, I doubt that any peace treaty will be honored unless the United States threatens to withhold the current $1.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt.
I am more concerned about the Gaza border in the mean time. I imagine the Brotherhood will ignore smuggling and tunnels. Hamas could take full advantage and launch a full scale attack against Israel with the support of Iran. With no one watching, that is a dangerous situation.
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warren speyers
9:07 pm
Jan 31, 2011
The Peace Treaty you refer to was struck at Camp David with Jimmy Carter as USA president and Anwar Sadat was president of Egypt and Mr. Terrorist himself (Yassir Arafat) “speaking” on behalf of the “Palestinians.” It was a “bought” peace whereby both Israel and Egypt were to receive huge sums of “foreign aid” if (especially) Egypt would end its hostility toward Israel and sign a long term peace accord. As a result Egypt became the second largest recipient of American foreign aid and so could “afford” to make peace with Israel as the Egyptian ruling elite would now be assured of having a luxurious Western-style mode of living. As with almost all such accords, this too had an embedded unsustainability in that too much money was retained by the elite and senior military personnel while the rest of the country realized little, if any, trickle-down economic effects: it stayed poor as any tourist will tell you by the number of people with their hands out looking for alms. Thus, the question if the Peace Accord with Israel can sty intact is a valid one as it all depends on who will take over the reigns from Mubarak. It is hardly likely America will increase its aid to Egypt as there are already “whispers” of cutting back on this aid to encourage Egypt to become “more democratic.” And if Egypt now takes a turn, like Iran, toward a hard-core Islamic-style mullahtocracy, American aid may well dry up altogether. There are enormous pent-up forces at play in Egypt at the moment, both religiously and economically, which a new oligarchy will have to somehow accommodate if outright revolution is to be avoided. Given the current child-like orientation of the Obama administration toward foreign affairs, America will in all likelihood do the wrong thing and most aggravate the crisis by making demands that can not be attained. And that is why Bibi went on the offensive by stating its (Israel’s) support for Egypt, for if things “fall off the rails” in Egypt and the Peace Accord becomes discarded, “everything” is then up for grabs including the relationship with Israel. For if America does make the wrong moves here, the current rage demonstrated on Egyptian streets could easily become focused on Israel, Peace Accord or not. And then what? Mubarak and whoever will take over the transition of power had better have a good plan ready that includes plenty of real and symbolic overtures toward the Egyptian people such as lowering prices and a complete change in governing authorities with a promise of free elections to come shortly. The key to this making it sustainable will be the willingness of the new power elite to relent some powers and (former) privileges which may be THE most difficult transition to overcome in a country so deeply steeped in systemic corruption, doctrinaire beliefs, and a deformed culture as exemplified by its immense poverty and illiteracy. Be careful America! And don’t let the ideological leftists at State be allowed to bring further grief to this situation!
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