With the rise of the so-called Islamic State, multiple groups fighting each other in the disintegrating states of Syria and Iraq, the bitter Sunni-Shia conflict and the competing interests of state actors and their proxies, the Middle East has never been more confusing for the casual observer. Not to mention the recent Iranian nuclear deal that has the potential to alter the balance of power within the region.
To make sense of it all, over 90 people joined HonestReporting to hear Dr. Jonathan Spyer, the Director of the Rubin Center, IDC Herzliya and a fellow at the Middle East Forum on July 23 in Jerusalem.
Using his experiences traveling to some of the Mideast hot spots, including most recently Iraq, Dr. Spyer expertly wove together the various threads that link the multiple conflicts affecting the region as well as addressing the impact of the Iran’s nefarious influence and the effects on Israeli security and diplomacy. He addressed how those Arab states that lacked a unified national identity or national institutions have imploded over the course of the past five years, for example Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, while others that did have strong national identities and institutions such as Egypt or Tunisia, have avoided this scenario.
Dr. Spyer explained how with the collapse of states, older sub-state, primordial identities have resurfaced forming the basis of the various political and military groups battling over the remains of those collapsed states. He traced the beginning of the process to Syria in the summer of 2012 when the Assad regime took a strategic decision to pull back from a very large swathe of territory in the country’s north and east in the belief at that time that he could reconquer the area in the future. Instead, what is clear is that this ushered in the creation of separate entities – a Sunni rebel entity, a Kurdish entity. The Sunni rebel entity has further splintered into other entities including Islamic State and Al-Nusra. Dr. Spyer also outlined how Iraq had also split into separate entities.
Dr. Spyer argued that today there is a single war system stretching from the Iran-Iraq border all the way to the Mediterranean Sea taking in the countries formerly known as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. He also touched on the situations of Libya, Yemen and even the Palestinian Authority, which has also effectively separated into two authorities.
Dr. Spyer explained how the collapse of states and sectarian warfare are defining the context through a number of factors including the hegemonic ambitions of Iran, the growing attempt by Sunni Arab and non-Arabs to resist this, and the desire of the United States to withdraw from close and active involvement in Middle East affairs.
Dr. Spyer stressed that while the Iranians are at the head of the single most powerful regional alliance, it has not managed complete domination of the region as yet due to the fact that its clients are not in control over the entirety of their own countries. For the Sunnis, the situation is more confused as there is not one single state sponsor of various Sunni Islamist groups but lots of different states interfering in different ways, often turning on each other. The Saudis have recently tried to reverse this through a change of policy and outreach towards Qatar and Turkey in order to create a united Sunni front against Iran.
Islamic State is, of course, not under the control of any state. The U.S. and its allies are engaged in an air campaign to destroy it. Dr. Spyer believes that the only way to achieve this is through ground operations, and only Western ground forces have the ability to carry this out. As such, ISIS is here for the foreseeable future.
Dr. Spyer stated his opinion that the Iranian nuclear deal needs to be seen within the context of the U.S. attempting a rapprochement in order to enable it to withdraw from the Middle East without any further conflict. Therefore, American strategy in the region has been piecemeal other than the desire to not be there at all.
Dr. Spyer noted that the changes in the Middle East are not all bad for Israel and could open new opportunities. In the past the Syrian army of Assad and the Iraqi army of Saddam Hussein represented the greatest threats to Israel but no longer exist, removing the main conventional threats. The emergence of ungoverned spaces bring new challenges from Sunni and Shia militias. Hezbollah remains the single biggest danger along with their Iranian sponsors. Dr. Spyer stressed that the release of sanctions relief for Iran will make it much harder to keep the dangers away from Israeli borders. He also said that it is unlikely that we will see a reunification of the Palestinian national movement any time soon.
Israel is faced with a set of tasks, given the reality of almost certain ongoing chaos and conflict on the borders around us and the ongoing advance of the Iranians, and the ongoing attempt of enemies of the Iranians to organize against it, Israel is faced with a series of tasks which are quite easy to define but very hard, of course, to achieve. This involves:
1. Hard defense – the building of fences, both metaphorical and physical, along the borders.
2. Making new friends – Israel can make diplomatic gains that were previously unimaginable. The Saudis are sufficiently terrified by the Iranians making them far more amenable to a new relationship with Israel due to a common enemy, something that can be repeated elsewhere with other countries in the region.
Dr. Spyer concluded:
Ultimately what this is all about is the failure of the Arab states in the post-colonial period to successfully develop polities and civil societies and economies and states that people want to live in and even solid national identities… We [Israel] are in fact well equipped to sail our way through these very troubled waters… but it will require a great deal of creative thinking and of creative action and policy making in the years ahead. We are in for a hell of a ride… but we are taking that ride in a very solid craft.
HonestReporting CEO Joe Hyams said:
It’s our reason for being here and hosting these events to not allow the media to become a cheerleader for those who turn a blind eye to the terrorist activities across the region. We must demand clear and accurate reporting on the impact of the P5+1 Iran agreement and the funds that go to groups such as Hezbollah in Syria and in Lebanon and the path of arms through the Middle East that reach terror groups in Gaza and beyond.
It’s on us to demand fair and honest coverage of these threats that engulf the region so that the public can be truly informed about new and emerging threats. An understanding of these issues begins with people like Dr. Jonathan Spyer who are equipped to help us contextualize and grasp the full extent of breaking news as it impacts our lives here in Israel and all civilized nations.
