The Iran-Turkey Alliance: A Plan for Regional Domination?

For many years, Iran has been trying to expand its reach in the Middle East and inch closer to Israel’s border, seeking  to destroy the Jewish state. Tehran has done so primarily through its own military, proxies in Syria, and sponsoring Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Concurrently, Israel’s continuous strikes against an Iranian presence in Syria and Hezbollah’s recent setbacks have led Tehran to look for a new partner in the region. There are strong indications that Turkey fits the bill.

Iran and Turkey: Axis in the Making?

The first indication of strengthening ties relates to Turkey’s support for Hamas, which, to date, has been largely supported by the Islamic Republic. There have been a series of meetings in recent weeks between Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Hamas members, including Saleh al-Arouri, the terror group’s deputy chief, and Maher Salah, its head of operations outside of the Gaza Strip. 

The United States has designated Arouri a wanted terrorist and offered a $5 million bounty for information resulting in his capture.  Reports suggest that Ankara has been providing safe haven for Hamas operatives, who have even planned attacks against Israel from Turkish soil.

Erdogan, who has ties to the extremist Muslim Brotherhood, has openly aligned himself with Iran and Hamas in condemning the developing Israel-United Arab Emirates normalization deal.  

Treaties, Revolution and Rapprochement

In 1926, Iran and Turkey signed a “Treaty of Friendship.” In 1932, they agreed to formalize the contours of their shared border, which had been in place since the 16th century.  Both nations were part of the 1937 Treaty of Saadabad, which included Iraq and Afghanistan; the 1955 Central Treaty Organization, which included Iraq, Pakistan and Britain; and the 1964 Regional Cooperation for Development agreement that also included Pakistan.

Turkey and Iran have been longtime commercial partners, with bilateral trade currently topping $30 billion per year. Millions of tourists make their way to and from each country every year, and there is also a significant connection between the populations of the two countries, with Azerbaijanis of Turkish origin making up the second largest ethnicity in Iran, and Kurds, an ethnic group with roots in Iran, comprising the second largest ethnicity in Turkey.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution created distance between Iran and Turkey, and their relations were subsequently strained for a few decades. Iran took issue with Turkey’s relationship with Israel, primarily Ankara’s work in conjunction with NATO partners on a missile shield that Tehran viewed as a plot to protect Israel from an Iranian counter-attack if the Jewish state attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. More recently, Turkey has supported the mostly Sunni Syrian opposition and not Iranian-backed Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in the ongoing war. 

Related Reading — Iran: The Regional Threat Explained

Nevertheless, ties between the two countries have warmed since 2017, when Turkey began to work with Iran and Russia to resolve the civil war in Syria and Turkey joined Iran in siding with Qatar in its dispute with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey has publicly opposed US sanctions on Iran, which, in turn, condemned American financial penalties against Turkey in 2018.  Turkey went so far as to refuse a February 2019 US invitation to a Warsaw summit on countering Iranian influence in the Middle East. 

Rising Economies, Rising Tensions?

Both Turkey and Iran have been struggling economically in recent years.  The currencies of both countries have plummeted in value against the dollar.  But their leaders have reason to feel emboldened regarding the respective directions they are headed in.  Turkish President Erdogan this month announced that 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves had been discovered off the coast of the Black Sea.  He says this will usher in a “new Turkey.”  Meanwhile, the UN Security Council has rejected a US proposal to extend the arms embargo on Iran, which is set to expire in October. 

However, the economic upswing in both countries could lead to struggles between the two since they have taken different sides in Syria, Libya and Armenia, and they may use their new wealth to become even more involved in these conflicts.  

Or, as recent developments have indicated, strengthened economies could lead to a reconciliation, as the two consolidate their radical axis against Israel even as more moderate Arab states are on a path towards normalizing relations with Israel.

For its part, Israel is taking no chances.  Yossi Cohen, head of the Mossad spy agency, has told his counterparts from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt that they should consider Iran and Turkey as serious threats to those seeking stability in the Middle East.