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“Bloody Business:” Sparing Khamenei, the Regime’s Nuclear Lies & a New Iranian Revolution?

Media outlets are focused on Iranian civilian casualties and have spent significant column inches debating whether or not U.S. President Donald Trump would decide to get the United States involved in bombing the Fordow nuclear…

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Media outlets are focused on Iranian civilian casualties and have spent significant column inches debating whether or not U.S. President Donald Trump would decide to get the United States involved in bombing the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran–a debate that has now been well and truly settled. But international media have omitted a lot of context in the week since Israel and Iran’s war came out of the shadows. From exhausted diplomatic efforts to decades of threats to destroy Israel, to the complexities of Iranian sentiments and why a real revolution hasn’t so far occurred in Tehran, and more, HonestReporting spoke with Dr. Meir Javedanfar, Iran Lecturer at Reichman University in Israel.

Here are some highlights.

Iranians feel “stuck in a war they do not want” (02:23)

According to Tehran political science professor Sadegh Zibakalam, 70% of Iranians would vote the regime out. In the last presidential election, Iranian state-run propaganda media Press TV reported voter turnout at its lowest, 49.8%. That’s important to understand when the media only showcase regime sympathizers. So what is the general sentiment in Iran on the current events unfolding?

“People in Iran are panicking because they feel they’re stuck in a war they did not choose. They have been against the Iranian regime’s policies against Israel for many years,” Javedanfar explains, “there is also great mistrust in the Iranian regime. People in Iran feel, ‘okay, there is a war. What is the regime going to do to protect me?’”

On the other hand, however, Israel has no choice. The Iranian regime “has been paying Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah tens of billions of dollars to kill Israeli citizens,” Javedanfar says.

Iranian regime mocks Holocaust, funds terror and lies about nuclear intent (04:56)

For decades, the regime has said it aims for Israel’s destruction, funds terror groups, and sponsors killing Israelis in Israel and across the globe. Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly mocked the Holocaust, “called it a myth,” and held Holocaust cartoon competitions, Javedanfar explains. The regime claims it’s against nuclear weaponization, yet has enriched uranium way above the amount needed for civilian nuclear energy levels. Javedanfar says, “Iran shut the door on diplomacy long ago.” The media are seemingly ignoring all of this.

He continues: “Every country has a right to have a nuclear program for civilian purposes, including Iran. Iran has a right to have nuclear energy and its own indigenous enrichment program, but the Iranian regime has weaponized that. It has weaponized it against the Israelis.”

There is enough evidence that outlets like the BBC, The Guardian, CNN, and others are excluding from the discussion. For media so adamant about verification and evidence, it seems they all have selective hearing. 

Javedanfar points out that Iran has already been caught pursuing “military aspects” of its nuclear program in the past, including a nuclear trigger system. “When you have a regime that says all these things, does all these things, and then it has a nuclear program, aspects of which it keeps secret, and then there are documents showing that in the past it has worked on a military program for its nuclear program, then Israel cannot live with this.”

If Khamenei’s “fatwa” on nuclear weapons is real, why isn’t the regime cooperating? (09:13)

The media seem hooked on the fact that Khamenei supposedly made a religious edict banning nuclear weaponization… and that it doesn’t match the Iranian regime’s actions. They conveniently forget all the evidence of the regime breaching the non-proliferation agreement in the past, Javedanfar says. “The Americans said [it] until 2003 – there’s been information that the Mossad brought also confirming that. The IAEA the day before, the day before Israel’s attack, passed a resolution condemning Iran for not coordinating on the inspection of its sites.”

He wonders why the regime refuses to cooperate if it “has nothing to hide” and asks: “If Ayatollah Khamenei’s fatwa is something they believe in and if it’s true…. Why are they hiding? Why are they putting their enrichment sites inside a mountain?” It’s food for thought. Maybe the media should eat some.

Israel cannot, and will not topple the Islamic Republic (21:08)

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are constantly quoted threatening to bring down the regime, but this is actually something that is only in the people’s hands, Javedanfar explains. 

Israel “is threatening regime change… because they know that’s the one thing that scares Khamenei more than anything else.” So Israel can create the environment for it, “and use it as a threat” for leverage, he suggests. Javedanfar says it’s really just to get the regime to do what Israel wants — “the disintegration of its enrichment policy.”

For Iranians, chances of a revolution are slim: it’s “very bloody business” (18:31)

So, what lies ahead for Iranians? Will they take the opportunity? It’s anyone’s guess. But there’s something that westerners must understand, he urges.

“If you’re willing to get shot, raped, tortured without anyone coming to your help in prison,” that’s what is required for someone to go out and protest in Iran, Javedanfar explains. “You have no lawyer, have nobody standing for your rights.” They must be willing to risk it all, and that’s a pretty good deterrent not to do it.

The world watched Iranians risk it all and take to the streets in September 2022 after Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab “properly,” was suspected to have been killed while in police custody. Over a few months of protests, hundreds were killed, tens of thousands arrested, almost a dozen executed, and more young women were arrested, beaten, or killed for not wearing a hijab and protesting. Eventually, the regime managed to stifle protests altogether.

“We would love to see the regime [be] overthrown, but it’s difficult for people living in the West, in the comfort of the West, [to be] expecting people living in such an oppressive society to go out and just do a revolution. It’s a very bloody business,” he says.

Nonetheless, there is still a chance of an uprising in Iran. Javedanfar ponders, “We could see it again.”

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Credits via Getty Images:
* Iranian Leader’s Press Office – Handout
* Martin Pope

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