A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah inched closer this week as the Shiite Lebanese terror group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened both Israel and Cyprus.
In a televised address on Wednesday, Nasrallah said, “There will be no place safe from our missiles and our drones should a larger conflagration erupt,” and that Hezbollah had “a bank of targets” it would aim for in precision strikes. He also urged the Cypriot government against opening airports and bases on the island for the “enemy” to operate from, although Israel is not known to have ever done this.
Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire since the October 7 Hamas attack, after the group fired rockets in support of Hamas, forcing tens of thousands of Israeli civilians to evacuate their homes in northern communities close to the border. Israeli military chiefs now think an all-out war is a real possibility.
In a statement, the military said “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field.”
But what would a war with Hezbollah look like? How would Israelis be affected by the war? And who would win?
‘3,000 Rockets Launched Daily; Air Defenses Overwhelmed and Mass Casualties’
A three-year study by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism, in which more than 100 senior military and government officials took part, forecasted devastation in Israel in the event of war.
The report, which was reportedly presented to government officials before the Hamas attack last year and seen by Israeli publication Calcalist, predicted Hezbollah would fire between 2,500 to 3,000 rockets each day at Israel. These would range from accurate rockets to precision long-range missiles and would be interspersed with intense barrages aimed at specific targets for maximum destruction, such as densely populated civilian areas or military targets.
Iranian terror proxies in the region, including pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen’s Houthis, would also join the conflict. It is thought that a multi-pronged assault could destroy Israel’s air defense systems, specifically by using munitions and drones to target Iron Dome batteries, as well as cause thousands of civilian and military casualties.
There has also been speculation that Iran itself would join, attacking Israel, as it did on April 13.
Due to Hezbollah’s vast arsenal of rockets, Israel’s Iron Dome interceptors and David’s Sling missiles would run out just a few days into the conflict, leaving most of the country entirely exposed and unprotected. It is thought that the daily rocket fire would last for weeks. The group’s precision missiles would target Israeli military bases to hinder counterattacks and critical infrastructure such as power plants, water facilities, and electricity stations.
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The critical seaports of Haifa and Ashdod would buckle, and international trade would be severely impacted, while flights would be canceled and airspace closed. Israel’s health system would likely be overwhelmed by the sheer number of casualties, as well as by hospitals themselves becoming targets of suicide drone attacks.
Meanwhile, an assault would also be launched in the digital realm, with Israeli communications infrastructure and government websites subjected to cyberattacks designed to wreak further damage on the country’s economy. The group would try to capitalize on the chaos to send hundreds of Radwan commandos to infiltrate the border with the goal of seizing Israeli towns and villages, forcing Israel to launch ground operations within its own territory.
There could be widespread panic among the Israeli public amid extensive damage and large casualty numbers, as well as difficulty accessing essentials like food and medicine. Hezbollah would seek to provoke a psychological campaign of warfare against Israelis by flooding social media networks with disinformation, aiming to sow distrust in official government spokespeople.
Like Hamas, Hezbollah would encourage Palestinians to carry out attacks and pile pressure on Israeli police struggling to maintain control. The war would end after around three weeks as the sheer scale of damage done to both sides is too much to sustain, leading to a kind of stalemate.
Post-War Détente & Wider Implications
The cost to Lebanon would be enormous. The 2006 Lebanon War was catastrophic for Lebanon’s economy, causing $3.5 billion in damage to infrastructure. A new war would be even worse for a country already facing a deep economic crisis.
However, Hezbollah is unlikely to be destroyed in a war, in part due to its deep integration into Lebanese society, including holding positions in the Lebanese government and controlling key institutions. Additionally, a war with Israel would likely serve as a propaganda victory for Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel would help it drum up support in the Arab world, potentially leaving it in a strengthened domestic position.
War with Hezbollah would have a much wider regional impact, including galvanizing extremist actors in the region and ushering in further instability in the Middle East.
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