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Gaza Hospital Explosion: The Evidence

In the evening of October 17, 2023, an explosion occurred at Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City. Following Hamas’ claim that an Israeli airstrike had caused the blast, the IDF conducted a thorough investigation and determined…

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In the evening of October 17, 2023, an explosion occurred at Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City.

Following Hamas’ claim that an Israeli airstrike had caused the blast, the IDF conducted a thorough investigation and determined that the explosion had been caused by an errant rocket fired towards Israel by the Islamic Jihad terror group.

According to the IDF, this errant rocket is one of approximately 450 Hamas and Islamic Jihad rockets that have misfired and landed in Gaza during this war.

The IDF’s determination of Islamic Jihad culpability rests on three factors: The timeline surrounding the explosion, internal Hamas communications following the explosion, and aerial footage of the impact site.

A Brief Timeline of the Explosion

According to the IDF, Islamic Jihad fired a barrage of rockets toward Israel from a Gaza City cemetery at 6:59 P.M. local time.

Seconds later, the explosion occurred at the hospital, which is located near the cemetery where the rocket fire originated from.

Local video sources (including one by Al Jazeera) corroborate the IDF’s account, showing the rocket fire, the errant rocket descending to earth, followed by the explosion.

The IDF investigation also determined that at the time of the explosion, there were no strikes by the Israeli air force, navy, or ground forces in the area of the hospital compound.

The Hamas Audio

Following the explosion, the IDF intercepted communications between Hamas members, including the audio of a phone call that was declassified by IDF Intelligence and released to the public.

The discussion between two Hamas operatives references the firing of rockets from the nearby cemetery, the fact that the shrapnel from the explosion is typical of shrapnel from a Gaza-based rocket launch and not Israeli, and that Hamas had determined the explosion was caused by a locally-fired rocket, presumably by Islamic Jihad.

According to Israeli journalist Ron Ben-Yishai, the audio appears to be authentic as the two Hamas operatives are speaking with a heavy Gazan accent.

Footage of the Blast Site

Further evidence is provided by aerial footage of the site.

This reveals the explosion (which occurred in the hospital’s parking lot) did not carry any of the telltale signs of an Israeli strike, including cratering or structural damage to nearby buildings.

The only damage seen from this footage is rocket debris on the roofs of some buildings and signs of burning in the parking lot area.

The size of the explosion and subsequent fire are likely the result of the rocket still containing most of its fuel when it fell into the hospital compound.

The IDF’s assertion that the damage was largely contained to the parking lot area and was mostly caused by the resulting fire is corroborated by open intelligence sources using images emerging from the Gaza Strip.

An intelligence assessment by the US National Security Council also backs Israel’s claims regarding the source of the blast.

For HonestReporting’s look at the botched coverage of the hospital blast, click here

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Photo Credits via IDF

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