As far as Israel's concerned, victory for Iranian reformists in tomorrow's elections will mean a change of style, but not substance. If the ruling mullahs want nuclear weapons, Iran will continue, whether or not the next president earns the proud MSM label of "reformist."
Daniel Kliman explains the risk of relying on the myth of moderates:
Iran appears ripe for a similar misperception. Reformists evince an interest in rapprochement with the US. For policymakers in Washington, it will be tempting to place the reformists at the center of any strategy for halting Iran's nuclear program. After all, they represent a potential ally inside Iran against hard-liners like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Yet, Iran's actual decision-making process is opaque, and the influence reformists wield is deeply uncertain. They may have little ability to thwart Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons. They may even believe that Iran is entitled to them. If the US relies on Iranian reformists to generate internal pressure against nuclear arms, it risks grasping at straws.
And as former Israeli ambassador Dore Gold told AFP:
"All of the candidates support continuing the nuclear programme."
Indeed, tomorrow's elections aren't democratic in the truest sense of the word. This AP primer on the electoral system shows how the theocracy retains control, no matter what the outcome:
All hopefuls for high elected office must be cleared by the Guardian Council, a 12-member body of clerics and scholars loyal to the ruling theocracy. The council often rejects potential candidates considered too liberal or critical of the Islamic system . . . .
The president has control of some domestic policies and serves as the international face of the country. But the non-elected theocracy, headed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, controls all major decisions and directly oversees key government posts such as the foreign, intelligence and defense ministers.
Big media has already abused labels like ultranationalist and conservative; now"reformist" is ripe to be misapplied.
In the event of a Mousavi victory, the MSM will overplay the "springtime in Iran" angle. The implications for Israel won't be as rosy as tomorrow's headlines.
